Iran is still grappling with the fallout from the fall of the Assad regime. It invested heavily in Assad’s rule in Damascus and likely expected that it would continue for many years. However, Assad fell from power on December 8.

Israel is celebrating the fall of Assad because it breaks the noose that Iran had been patiently tightening around Israel’s borders in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Tehran’s pincer is now broken and rendered useless. From the point of view of Israel’s wider conflict with the Islamic Republic, the collapse of Assad’s regime is a strategic victory.

Tehran’s increasingly vulnerable position in the region has energized opposition activists and spurred hardliners to endorse the pursuit of nuclear weapons.