The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increased at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

The July consumer price index is expected to show a slight increase in the costs of everyday goods as markets weigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, a more challenging job market and mounting “stagflation” concerns.