How embarrassing would it be for the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year? Could it admit that its aggressive rate reductions last year, including a cut as recently as last month, were a mistake,

As mentioned, mortgage rates haven't fallen in line with the Fed's rate cuts because they depend on factors beyond the agency's benchmark rate, such as the economy and 10-year Treasury bond yields. For example, when the 10-year treasury rate goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice-versa.

There’s uncertainty about expected policy changes favored by the Trump administration - which may be inflationary to a degree. We anticipate that Fed will leave rates unchanged on Jan 29.

The Federal Open Market Committee is highly likely to hold interest rates at their current level at their next meeting, but cuts later in 2025 remain on the table.

Some economists are now contemplating what was previously unthinkable — and they are focused on the personal-consumption expenditures price index